Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a87…4905 crypto 275 markets active 20h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (362 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,349 (+107%) realized +$6,349 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%138W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day362.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (362 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 -1.5% -10.9% 49% 43% -9.2%
≤30d 275 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 43% -9.4%
≤90d 275 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 43% -9.4%
all 275 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 43% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover362.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 43% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 33% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 25% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 19% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses138 / 137
Open positions0
Markets (closed)275 / 275
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day362.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 275 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $43 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $75 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $71 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $53 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$7 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$8 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $39 +$16 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$9 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$11 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $54 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $88 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $83 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $84 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $36 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records