Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a86…12f7 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (266 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day266.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (266 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 25% -13.2%
≤30d 69 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 25% -13.2%
≤90d 69 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 25% -13.2%
all 69 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 25% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover266.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 25% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 19% -21.5%
15% -31.3% 13% -29.1%
20% -38.0% 12% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day266.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$27 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $55 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $165 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $27 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $109 −$12 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $55 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $82 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $92 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $96 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $29 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $27 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 269 history records