Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1A 0x1a85…c99a politics 4 markets active 3h ago coverage 40d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$257 (-13%) realized −$92 · open −$165
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -89% what you keep after slip
Net edge-89%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$111
politics 25% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-88.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -87.4% -88.6% 0% 0% -88.6%
≤90d 1 -87.4% -88.6% 0% 0% -88.6%
all 1 -87.4% -88.6% 0% 0% -88.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -88.6% 0% -88.6%
10% -89.7% 0% -89.7%
15% -90.7% 0% -90.7%
20% -91.6% 0% -91.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -87% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$97 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1,578
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage40d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,384 $1,273 −$111 (-8%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $190 $180 −$10 (-5%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $169 $124 −$45 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $111 −$97 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $139 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $40 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $446 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 2h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $14 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $62 17d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $62 17d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 17d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 17d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 17d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $93 18d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 18d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $520 18d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 32d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 32d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 32d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $64 40d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,578.16 · official $1,578.16 (match) · 59 history records