Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:31:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1A 0x1a83…343d crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+3%) realized +$33 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%25W / 27L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$89
14 days+$98
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$107
other 1% $0
politics 1% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +4.6% -5.3% 54% 46% -2.0%
≤30d 52 -5.9% -14.8% 48% 42% -1.7%
≤90d 52 -5.9% -14.8% 48% 42% -1.7%
all 52 -5.9% -14.8% 48% 42% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 42% -1.7%
10% -23.0% 37% -11.1%
15% -30.4% 29% -19.7%
20% -37.2% 25% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses25 / 27
Open positions8
Markets (closed)52 / 60
History coverage10d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 0¢ 56¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 82¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $73 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$37 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$42 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $78 −$32 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$20 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$15 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$43 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$29 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$14 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$60 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $1 −$1 -86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $24 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $28 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $46 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $41 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.96 · official $73.19 · 159 history records