Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1A 0x1a81…c32c crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%44W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$7
crypto 10% +$1
politics 3% $0
tech 3% +$2
other 1% $0
world 1% −$11
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 -1.8% -11.1% 79% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses44 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage523d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $55 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 03 $34 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 01 $11 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will another party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Cana Apr 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian E Apr 17 $74 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $5,612 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $28 +$1 +4%
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1? Feb 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Feb 11 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $17 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $47 63d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $18 91d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $8 149d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $31 150d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 182d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 182d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $47 183d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $38 212d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $13 241d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $16 242d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $40 242d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 273d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $14 302d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $55 303d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $7 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $45 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 363d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 365d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.66 · official $69.66 (match) · 122 history records