Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a81…6cf9 weather 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$76 (+10%) realized +$26 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day158.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +29.9% +17.5% 100% 67% +15.5%
≤30d 6 +29.9% +17.5% 100% 67% +15.5%
≤90d 6 +29.9% +17.5% 100% 67% +15.5%
all 6 +29.9% +17.5% 100% 67% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover158.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.5% 67% +15.5%
10% ← realistic here +6.3% 67% +4.5%
15% -4.0% 50% -5.6%
20% -13.4% 17% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)6 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day158.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Yes 50¢ 74¢ $134 $195 +$61 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 19? No 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 19? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 19? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+125%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-69%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+400%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$18 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $88 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $47 +$19 +41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $100 +$38 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 28m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 28m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 29m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $18 29m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.50 · official $286.54 · 158 history records