Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1a80…7d63 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$10 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%24W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$3
other 10% +$1
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 11 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 24 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses24 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage118d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $188 $186 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 07 $28 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 07 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? May 01 $76 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? Apr 21 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16? Apr 21 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 13? Apr 16 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 13 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $74 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 4? Apr 08 $74 $0 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.32 in March? Apr 01 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 21? Mar 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 13? Mar 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 13? Mar 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 12? Mar 13 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on March 10? Mar 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10? Mar 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10? Mar 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 3? Mar 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 3? Mar 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 98¢ $189 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? BUY No 99¢ $28 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 96¢ $29 44d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $20 44d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? BUY No 100¢ $76 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $66 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? BUY No 93¢ $9 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $74 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $69 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 86d
Will Ethena reach $0.32 in March? BUY No 100¢ $74 98d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $74 100d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $73 101d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 108d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $72 109d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $12 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10? BUY No 99¢ $20 111d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 3? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.82 · official $185.82 (match) · 51 history records