Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a7b…d396 other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$23
14 days−$29
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$38
sports 22% −$21
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage128d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $490 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $227 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $423 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $253 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $279 −$2 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $563 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $395 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $742 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $678 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $299 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $307 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $158 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $180 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $234 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $168 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $43 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $43 2h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 7h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 9h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 10h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 14h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 14h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 17h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 18h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 18h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 19h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 21h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $44 22h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $44 23h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $44 26h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $44 28h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 32h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 34h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $44 38h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $44 39h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 41h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 43h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $44 44h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $44 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1373 history records