Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:22:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1A 0x1a71…a47e other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,836 (+17%) realized +$1,775 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate69%25W / 11L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$1,216
14 days+$1,216
30 days+$1,469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$403
sports 22% +$1,280
crypto 9% +$656
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +8.6% -1.7% 66% 66% +1.1%
≤30d 35 +16.5% +5.4% 69% 66% +2.9%
≤90d 36 +16.6% +5.5% 69% 67% +2.9%
all 36 +16.6% +5.5% 69% 67% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 67% +2.9%
10% -4.6% 53% -6.9%
15% -13.8% 47% -15.9%
20% -22.3% 31% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +47% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$237 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized+$1,775
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses25 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage31d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $240 $303 +$64 (+27%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $303 +$151 +50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $301 +$44 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$166 +55%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $404 −$404 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $507 +$521 +103%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $303 −$302 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,198 +$313 +26%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,004 +$677 +67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $704 −$704 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $909 +$454 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,013 +$643 +64%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $771 −$717 -93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 +$8 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $151 +$47 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$191 +63%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$45 +89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$43 -84%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $202 +$74 +37%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $132 +$191 +145%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 +$60 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$60 +40%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$67 +132%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $403 −$4 -1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$11 +218%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $304 +$241 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 79¢ $241 36m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 41m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 51¢ $81 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 29h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 29h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 29h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 29h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $301 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $195 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $516 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $603 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,004 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $192 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $603 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $184 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.83 · official $355.83 (match) · 112 history records