Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1a70…7f47 politics 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
politics 25% +$3
other 17% +$14
economics 6% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 4% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 40 +1.5% -8.1% 38% 5% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 5% -7.5%
10% -16.9% 2% -16.4%
15% -25.0% 2% -24.5%
20% -32.3% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.38 per $1 lost it wins $7.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage303d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $39 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $3 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $2 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $33 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $34 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $38 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $5 $0 -3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Dec 27 $6 $0 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $9 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $8 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $27 +$14 +50%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $24 +$3 +11%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $22 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 US Open? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $51 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 19 $43 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 2h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $21 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $21 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $36 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $36 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $30 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $32 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $31 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $34 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $34 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $20 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $17 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $38 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $6 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $12 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $18 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $17 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records