Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:58:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1A 0x1a70…4865 sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,211 (+22%) realized +$5,140 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%43W / 21L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2,971now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$884
7 days+$999
14 days+$2,635
30 days+$4,700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$5,532
other 24% −$844
crypto 0% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -0.2% -9.7% 58% 58% -0.9%
≤30d 64 +16.8% +5.7% 67% 67% +13.4%
≤90d 64 +16.8% +5.7% 67% 67% +13.4%
all 64 +16.8% +5.7% 67% 67% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 67% +13.4%
10% -4.4% 64% +2.6%
15% -13.7% 62% -7.4%
20% -22.1% 50% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$221 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$2,971
Realized+$5,140
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses43 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions8
Markets (closed)64 / 72
History coverage16d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 59¢ 90¢ $700 $1,062 +$362 (+52%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 61¢ 60¢ $450 $439 −$11 (-2%)
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card) Christian Rodriguez 68¢ 66¢ $350 $342 −$8 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 30¢ $500 $227 −$273 (-55%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $150 $158 +$8 (+6%)
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Karol Rosa 51¢ 50¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $231 +$92 +40%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $205 −$194 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $206 −$200 -97%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,432 +$978 +68%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $123 +$104 +84%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 +$129 +63%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $255 +$142 +56%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $256 +$234 +91%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $512 −$500 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $513 +$569 +111%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $205 +$146 +72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $90 +$93 +103%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $204 +$65 +32%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $811 +$119 +15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $205 +$173 +84%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $205 +$220 +107%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $154 +$119 +78%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $102 +$76 +74%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $256 +$264 +103%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $155 −$155 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $718 −$718 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $324 +$484 +149%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $255 −$255 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$43 +42%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $511 +$366 +72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$83 +81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $153 +$74 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $254 +$44 +17%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $102 +$98 +95%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $154 +$165 +107%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $327 +$215 +66%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$62 +41%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$45 +88%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$37 +72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$61 +40%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $204 +$104 +51%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $102 +$65 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $358 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $358 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 41¢ $142 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 61¢ $460 1h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 68¢ $357 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 41¢ $103 1h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 51¢ $154 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $153 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 62¢ $1,882 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,996 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $510 10h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $154 10h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 84¢ $323 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 3¢ $11 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $205 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $103 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $103 17h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $78 19h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $153 19h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $123 21h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $1,022 21h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $409 24h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $204 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $204 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $205 42h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $256 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $255 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $410 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $102 2d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $511 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,971.48 · official $2,971.48 (match) · 172 history records