Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1A 0x1a6b…4805 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+4%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$2
other 21% +$3
crypto 16% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.7% -22.8% 44% 31% -7.0%
≤30d 16 -14.7% -22.8% 44% 31% -7.0%
≤90d 16 -14.7% -22.8% 44% 31% -7.0%
all 16 -14.7% -22.8% 44% 31% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 31% -7.0%
10% -30.2% 25% -15.9%
15% -37.0% 25% -24.1%
20% -43.2% 12% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $8 −$1 -6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$14 +57%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $30 +$12 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $30 6m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $8 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $8 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 28h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 28h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $24 38h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $18 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 SELL Over $0 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 4d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 SELL Over 95¢ $32 4d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $10 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 5d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 5d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $30 5d
France to score first vs. Senegal? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 5d
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records