Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1a68…9c1b sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$200 (+1%) realized +$200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%48W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$187
other 14% +$14
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 54 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 54 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 0% -8.5%
all 54 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 0% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$577) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×1259.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10077.21 per $1 lost it wins $10077.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses48 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage5d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $38 $0 -0%
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $5 $0 -0%
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $60 $0 +0%
São Bernardo FC leading at halftime? Jun 27 $43 $0 -0%
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $69 +$1 +1%
Criciúma EC to score first vs. São Bernardo FC? Jun 27 $148 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $690 +$7 +1%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $342 $0 -0%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $342 +$7 +2%
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $41 $0 +0%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $677 +$7 +1%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $660 +$16 +2%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $654 +$6 +1%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $585 +$3 +0%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $66 $0 +0%
Londrina EC to score first vs. Cuiabá EC? Jun 26 $43 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Cuiabá EC 0 - 3 Londrina EC? Jun 26 $8 $0 +0%
Cuiabá EC leading at halftime? Jun 26 $145 $0 +0%
Cuiabá EC vs. Londrina EC: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Cuiabá EC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $418 +$9 +2%
Exact Score: Cuiabá EC 3 - 0 Londrina EC? Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $481 $0 +0%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $398 +$2 +0%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $236 +$7 +3%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $125 +$3 +2%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $505 +$1 +0%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $629 +$1 +0%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $620 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $618 +$1 +0%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $612 +$6 +1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $602 +$12 +2%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $585 +$17 +3%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $1,083 +$1 +0%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $579 +$5 +1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $577 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $254 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 24 $310 +$2 +0%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $22 $0 +0%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $552 +$1 +0%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $562 +$11 +2%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $545 +$5 +1%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $555 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $29 6m
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $38 6m
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 6m
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 6m
São Bernardo FC leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $43 6m
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 6m
Criciúma EC to score first vs. São Bernardo FC? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 6m
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 100¢ $38 28m
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $60 29m
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $3 30m
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $29 35m
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 41m
São Bernardo FC leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Criciúma EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $69 1h
Criciúma EC to score first vs. São Bernardo FC? BUY Yes 99¢ $37 1h
Criciúma EC to score first vs. São Bernardo FC? BUY Yes 99¢ $111 1h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 99¢ $690 19h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $342 20h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $348 20h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $342 20h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $327 20h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $15 20h
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $41 21h
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $23 21h
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $15 21h
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $3 21h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $646 24h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $9 24h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 24h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records