Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:32:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1a67…9d16
world · 38 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$9 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage261d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $57 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $125 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 -15%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $58 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $11 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $25 +$8 +30%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $22 $0 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 55% $0
other 15% +$2
politics 15% $0
sports 9% +$8
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $28 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $30 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $57 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 31h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $53 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $13 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $66 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $47 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $39 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $58 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.0% -10.4% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 37 +1.0% -8.6% 32% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -8.7%
10% -17.3% 3% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.12 · official $4.03 (match) · 232 history records