Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1A 0x1a66…ae5e sports 390 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,438 (-3%) realized −$25,105 · open −$333
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%189W / 199L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,865per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$7,402est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$8,692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,458
7 days+$22,994
14 days+$22,377
30 days−$12,803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$23,643
other 24% −$3,668
world 0% −$3,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +32.0% +19.4% 64% 64% +20.2%
≤30d 80 +3.0% -6.8% 51% 51% -14.8%
≤90d 322 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 48% -14.1%
all 388 -1.2% -10.7% 49% 48% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 48% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 48% -21.6%
15% -27.0% 47% -29.2%
20% -34.2% 46% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$3,000) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,700 vs −$1,766 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$8,692
Realized−$25,105
Unrealized−$333
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses189 / 199
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$7,402
Open positions2
Markets (closed)388 / 390
History coverage96d
Avg bet$1,865
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 45¢ 48¢ $5,025 $5,416 +$390 (+8%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Over 47¢ 38¢ $4,000 $3,277 −$723 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $4,001 +$3,693 +92%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $8,507 −$1,841 -22%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4,001 −$4,001 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,000 +$4,696 +117%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $3,501 +$3,792 +108%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $1,960 −$1,960 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $3,204 +$3,078 +96%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,128 −$1,110 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,001 −$2,001 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $6,061 −$6,001 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,500 +$881 +59%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $3,000 +$3,977 +133%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $4,000 +$2,780 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $5,000 +$6,628 +133%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 23 $38 +$39 +104%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2,029 +$1,892 +93%
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) Jun 22 $979 −$979 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 181.5 Jun 22 $2,559 +$2,586 +101%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 22 $470 +$530 +113%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,031 +$2,135 +105%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $7,107 +$7,179 +101%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $9 +$10 +104%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 Jun 20 $203 +$94 +46%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $8,787 −$8,660 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $4,065 −$4,000 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,045 −$3,000 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,321 −$1,300 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,059 +$2,076 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,058 +$3,302 +108%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8,126 +$4,119 +51%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,219 −$1,200 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5,081 +$4,372 +86%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 15 $4,672 −$4,600 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,073 +$4,730 +93%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $914 −$900 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,192 +$1,274 +107%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,034 +$2,512 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $1,014 +$838 +83%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 14 $608 +$498 +82%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 Jun 14 $1,421 +$1,317 +93%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 13 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 11 $3,865 −$3,805 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 Jun 11 $4,477 −$4,407 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $406 +$346 +85%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 10 $4,570 −$4,500 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 10 $710 −$700 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $25 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $4,000 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 45¢ $5,000 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $4,001 22h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $382 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $180 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $16 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $46 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $2 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $4 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $2 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $3 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $41 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $409 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $9 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $159 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $205 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $48 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $1 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $4 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $119 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $2 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $39 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $549 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $1 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $13 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $2 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $766 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 52¢ $5 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 53¢ $2,502 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,692.41 · official $8,692.41 (match) · 1855 history records