Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a63…e745 weather 720 markets active 11h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized −$28 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%649W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$34
other 3% −$5
world 1% −$2
finance 1% −$1
politics 1% −$7
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 448 -0.6% -10.1% 94% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 689 -2.0% -11.3% 91% 0% -14.0%
all 718 -1.4% -10.8% 90% 2% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -11.2%
10% -19.4% 1% -19.7%
15% -27.2% 1% -27.4%
20% -34.3% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses649 / 69
Open positions2
Markets (closed)718 / 720
History coverage203d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.45 · official $2.45 (match) · 1438 history records