Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1a61…94f0
other · 43 markets active 10d ago
0.0score
−$693 -69%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$670 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$65
Realized−$670
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 29
Open positions12
Markets (closed)31 / 43
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%
Chart Positions 12 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$579
30 days−$670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 33¢ 18¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-43%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 36¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 35¢ 26¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 58¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $223 −$216 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $64 −$62 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2 Jun 01 $312 −$300 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 +$5 +95%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$195 +3714%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $110 −$105 -95%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 63% −$583
other 31% −$76
world 5% −$30
economics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $5 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 2¢ $5 10d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $103 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $52 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2 BUY No 1¢ $104 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2 BUY No 0¢ $104 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $103 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $1 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2 BUY No 0¢ $104 10d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 21d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 22d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $5 25d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 36¢ $10 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 25d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 25d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 25d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 25d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 35¢ $10 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 26d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 2¢ $110 26d
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 26d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 31 -26.0% -33.0% 6% 6% -87.7%
≤90d 31 -26.0% -33.0% 6% 6% -87.7%
all 31 -26.0% -33.0% 6% 6% -87.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 6% -87.7%
10% -39.4% 6% -88.8%
15% -45.3% 6% -89.9%
20% -50.6% 6% -90.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.09 · official $65.09 (match) · 97 history records