Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:35:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1A 0x1a5c…154b crypto 1449 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$3,608 (+56%) realized +$3,608 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%251W / 1198L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day61.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$517
14 days+$396
30 days+$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$2,197
other 26% +$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +106.6% +86.9% 25% 25% -47.5%
≤30d 953 +26.4% +14.3% 20% 20% -25.9%
≤90d 1449 +26.3% +14.3% 17% 17% -20.6%
all 1449 +26.3% +14.3% 17% 17% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.3% 17% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here +3.3% 17% -28.2%
15% -6.7% 16% -35.1%
20% -15.8% 16% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$4 · ×7.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized+$3,608
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses251 / 1198
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1449 / 1449
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day61.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1449 Trades
no open positions (283 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +257%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +212%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$9 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$6 +461%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$12 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$9 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
BNB Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$370 +9169%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$9 +150%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$14 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +178%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -93%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$8 +625%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $0 +$45 +9169%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 20h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 21h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 24h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 24h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 33h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.43 · official $423.43 (match) · 3500 history records