Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1A 0x1a58…9b79 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$637 (-5%) realized −$598 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%54W / 1L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$24
politics 40% −$615
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 55 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -14.2%
10% -18.2% 0% -22.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -29.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$620 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$2,484
Realized−$598
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses54 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage617d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $1,423 $1,418 −$5 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $600 $591 −$9 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 97¢ 92¢ $500 $475 −$25 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $400 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $702 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $635 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $775 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $775 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $413 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $218 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $588 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $516 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Feb 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Feb 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Feb 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Feb 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Feb 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Feb 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Nov 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Nov 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Nov 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Nov 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Nov 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in September? Nov 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Nov 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Nov 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Nov 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Nov 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,423 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 97¢ $501 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $600 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $775 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $702 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $635 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $775 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $218 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $413 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $588 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $516 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 107d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 107d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 107d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 107d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 125d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 125d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 216d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $8 216d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $7 216d
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $5 216d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 216d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $4 216d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $4 216d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 216d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,484.35 · official $2,484.35 (match) · 120 history records