Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1A 0x1a57…4e4e sports 4 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$492 (+50%) realized +$492 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$261
other 42% +$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +35.3%
≤30d 4 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +35.3%
≤90d 4 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +35.3%
all 4 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.7% 100% +35.3%
10% +20.9% 100% +22.3%
15% +9.3% 100% +10.5%
20% -1.4% 25% -0.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$492
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage4d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $406 +$221 +54%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $279 +$127 +46%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $189 +$90 +48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$44 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $627 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $406 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $279 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $189 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $145 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records