Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a56…478a sports 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$312 (-13%) realized −$311 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%72W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$314
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$151
sports 37% −$158
crypto 3% −$21
world 1% +$14
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -73.5% -76.0% 17% 17% -95.8%
≤90d 136 -44.3% -49.6% 26% 26% -45.0%
all 185 -12.6% -21.0% 39% 37% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 37% -22.6%
10% -28.5% 37% -30.0%
15% -35.4% 36% -36.7%
20% -41.8% 31% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$311
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses72 / 113
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)185 / 196
History coverage112d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $249 −$245 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $16 −$15 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? Apr 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $40 −$33 -84%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 17 $11 +$9 +83%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac Apr 15 $17 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $15 −$10 -69%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $15 +$36 +238%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $17 −$16 -99%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 15 $10 −$10 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 15 $5 +$4 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $10 +$17 +165%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $25 +$20 +79%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $10 +$10 +96%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs GLYPH (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Q Apr 13 $16 +$11 +66%
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 13 $10 +$6 +55%
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 13 $10 +$9 +86%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 13 $10 +$12 +124%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 +$8 +165%
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 12 $10 −$5 -47%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 12 $8 −$6 -79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $10 +$7 +74%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $10 +$12 +117%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FK Spartak Moskva win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will NAC Breda win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $5 +$5 +97%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 12 $15 +$10 +67%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $23 −$2 -10%
UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims Apr 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $36 +$17 +48%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Raptors vs. Knicks Apr 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Apr 11 $10 +$3 +34%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 10 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelim Apr 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1 BUY 18¢ $10 39m
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Panama vs. England: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY 26¢ $10 40m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Ca BUY 17¢ $10 44m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goal BUY $10 47m
Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 T BUY 26¢ $10 48m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg BUY 32¢ $13 58m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1 BUY 17¢ $10 59m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $99 7d
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye $5 7d
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye $10 7d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $31 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $150 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 15d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $5 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 15d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 15d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 32¢ $10 15d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 36d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 71d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? SELL Yes $6 71d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 71d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 71d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 71d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 71d
Rangers vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 57¢ $17 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.26 · official $218.54 · 407 history records