Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:24:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1A 0x1a56…3ecf sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$291 (-51%) realized −$292 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$372
sports 34% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +137.2% +114.6% 100% 100% +114.6%
≤90d 2 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% -70.9%
all 2 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% -70.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 50% -70.9%
10% -3.0% 50% -73.7%
15% -12.3% 50% -76.2%
20% -20.9% 50% -78.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$372 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$292
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage39d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 44¢ $131 $113 −$18 (-13%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $372 $0 −$372 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $58 +$80 +137%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $378 −$372 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $31 1h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $139 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 41¢ $58 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 44¢ $358 39d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.26 · official $113.26 (match) · 6 history records