Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a53…7730 crypto 2075 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate74%1410W / 502L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day155.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$58
14 days+$115
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 950 +5.8% -4.2% 71% 71% -4.1%
≤30d 1912 +5.6% -4.5% 74% 73% -4.2%
≤90d 1912 +5.6% -4.5% 74% 73% -4.2%
all 1912 +5.6% -4.5% 74% 73% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 73% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 64% -13.4%
15% -22.0% 53% -21.7%
20% -29.6% 21% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses1410 / 502
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1912 / 2075
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day155.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1912 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $1.34 · 3500 history records