Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a52…276d crypto 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$308 (-11%) realized −$308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%25W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$371
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -49.7% -54.5% 25% 25% -35.5%
≤30d 4 -49.7% -54.5% 25% 25% -35.5%
≤90d 105 -21.8% -29.2% 24% 24% -22.9%
all 105 -21.8% -29.2% 24% 24% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 24% -22.9%
10% -36.0% 23% -30.3%
15% -42.2% 21% -37.0%
20% -47.9% 21% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$22 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses25 / 80
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage69d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$26 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 23 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 23 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 17 $1 +$2 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 15 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 15 $26 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 15 $4 +$6 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 15 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 15 $50 −$44 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 15 $71 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 15 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 15 $5 +$11 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 15 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 15 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 15 $50 −$47 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 15 $60 −$57 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 15 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 15 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 15 $50 +$146 +293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 15 $100 +$161 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 15 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 15 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 15 $45 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 15 $62 −$59 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 15 $90 −$84 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 15 $90 +$351 +390%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 15 $50 +$83 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 15 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 15 $71 −$66 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 15 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 15 $84 +$102 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 15 $90 −$84 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 15 $97 +$180 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $20 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $20 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $9 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $4 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $6 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $50 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $10 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $50 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $6 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records