Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1A 0x1a4e…d20d other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$110 (+15%) realized +$110 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$163
sports 32% −$43
crypto 19% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +36.4% +23.4% 42% 42% +1.3%
≤30d 24 +36.4% +23.4% 42% 42% +1.3%
≤90d 24 +36.4% +23.4% 42% 42% +1.3%
all 24 +36.4% +23.4% 42% 42% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.4% 42% +1.3%
10% +11.6% 38% -8.4%
15% +0.8% 38% -17.2%
20% -9.1% 33% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$20 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 36¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $13 −$12 -92%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $121 −$107 -89%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $41 +$30 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$16 -16%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$75 +369%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $30 +$32 +105%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$20 +195%
Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 −$21 -98%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 20 $15 +$29 +188%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9 −$4 -39%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$70 +682%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $33 +$55 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 +$37 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $27 1h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? SELL Yes $1 1h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 2h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv SELL Maccabi Tel-Aviv $13 2h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 53¢ $121 4h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $71 6h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $41 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $87 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 14h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $96 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 24h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $20 26h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $20 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 27h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $30 28h
Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $10 28h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $7 29h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 29h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $10 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 40h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $15 2d
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $15 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? SELL Yes $6 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes $9 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes $10 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $10 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.16 · official $26.16 (match) · 42 history records