Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1A 0x1a4e…b8ca crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-4%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%32W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$633
sports 20% +$40
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +16.7% +5.6% 80% 73% +3.0%
≤30d 18 +9.9% -0.6% 72% 61% +2.0%
≤90d 82 -35.6% -41.7% 39% 32% -35.5%
all 82 -35.6% -41.7% 39% 32% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.7% 32% -35.5%
10% -47.3% 20% -41.7%
15% -52.4% 12% -47.3%
20% -57.0% 7% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses32 / 50
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage79d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $41 +$7 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$3 +28%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $77 +$1 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $56 +$9 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $60 +$6 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $42 +$6 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $32 +$18 +57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $28 −$8 -27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$7 +33%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $15 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12PM ET May 25 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12PM ET May 22 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11AM ET May 22 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3PM ET May 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET May 14 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1PM ET May 14 $29 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 14 $7 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12PM ET May 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10AM ET May 13 $21 −$12 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET May 12 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3PM ET May 12 $90 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET May 12 $43 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET May 12 $91 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4PM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3PM ET May 09 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5PM ET May 08 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4PM ET May 08 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3PM ET May 08 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2PM ET May 08 $5 +$1 +22%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 07 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6PM ET May 07 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2PM ET May 07 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1PM ET May 07 $25 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12PM ET May 07 $10 +$9 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6PM ET Apr 07 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5PM ET Apr 07 $11 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5PM ET Apr 06 $52 −$19 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4PM ET Apr 06 $36 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1PM ET Apr 06 $36 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12PM ET Apr 06 $62 −$30 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11AM ET Apr 06 $46 −$22 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10AM ET Apr 06 $36 −$17 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 1PM ET Apr 03 $35 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12PM ET Apr 03 $50 −$48 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 9PM ET Apr 03 $89 +$32 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $47 25m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $5 34m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $11 34m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $12 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $41 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $28 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $32 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 82¢ $62 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 82¢ $4 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $21 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $50 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $35 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $45 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 39¢ $19 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $23 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $48 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $21 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $21 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 56¢ $47 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $36 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $32 9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 28¢ $21 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $28 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 23¢ $34 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $34 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $30 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $0 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.25 · official $7.25 (match) · 222 history records