Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:09:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1A 0x1a4c…6047 sports 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
Total PnL −$231 (-9%) realized −$253 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%62W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$51
14 days−$73
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$205
other 4% −$41
crypto 2% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.4% -9.9% 63% 63% -15.2%
≤30d 102 -8.4% -17.1% 61% 59% -18.8%
≤90d 102 -8.4% -17.1% 61% 59% -18.8%
all 102 -8.4% -17.1% 61% 59% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 59% -18.8%
10% -25.0% 55% -26.6%
15% -32.3% 45% -33.7%
20% -38.9% 22% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12.719885529127632% → late -4.050919192004452% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$253
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses62 / 40
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 105
History coverage27d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 28¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-48%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire PortlandFire 61¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Partizan 62¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Zhejiang Lions 66¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies San Francisco Giants 80¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 163.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano Olimpia Milano 60¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Telekom Baskets Bonn vs. FC Bayern Munchen: O/U 158.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Alycia Parks 68¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5 Under 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 78¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban BC Zenit 65¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $26 +$9 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $51 −$49 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$49 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$24 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $38 −$37 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $47 +$42 +90%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$18 +90%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $33 −$33 -99%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $33 −$33 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 163.5 Jun 12 $23 +$20 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Jerusalem Jun 11 $50 +$18 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $36 −$36 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $40 +$14 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $34 +$18 +52%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 10 $30 +$13 +44%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $20 +$5 +25%
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora Jun 10 $20 +$8 +38%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $30 +$27 +90%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Eunhye Lee Jun 09 $10 +$18 +174%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $17 +$3 +18%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $12 +$5 +37%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 07 $20 +$7 +34%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $13 −$13 -99%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $20 +$13 +65%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $24 −$24 -99%
BC Dubai vs. Partizan Jun 06 $30 +$11 +36%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $19 +$15 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Bilbao Basket vs. Valencia Jun 05 $18 +$8 +46%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 05 $15 +$8 +55%
BC Dubai vs. Partizan Jun 04 $23 +$9 +40%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $13 +$5 +40%
Telekom Baskets Bonn vs. FC Bayern Munchen: O/U 158.5 Jun 04 $15 −$15 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $15 +$5 +32%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 03 $20 +$7 +35%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $15 +$6 +38%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 03 $15 −$15 -99%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 157.5 Jun 03 $20 +$4 +18%
CSKA Moscow vs. Unics Kazan Jun 02 $20 +$5 +24%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5 Jun 02 $25 −$25 -99%
Monaco vs. Nanterre Jun 01 $15 +$7 +46%
Virtus Bologna vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 01 $20 +$6 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 66¢ $51 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $26 17h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 18h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $2 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 41¢ $25 39h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $38 42h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 42h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 52¢ $47 45h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 2d
Partizan vs. BC Dubai BUY Partizan 62¢ $33 2d
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban BUY BC Zenit 65¢ $33 2d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 54¢ $23 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $36 3d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Jerusalem BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 73¢ $50 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Los Angeles Sparks 73¢ $40 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 65¢ $34 3d
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow BUY CSKA Moscow 69¢ $30 4d
Valencia vs. Joventut BUY Valencia 79¢ $20 4d
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora BUY Legia Warszawa 72¢ $20 4d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 5d
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Eunhye Lee BUY Mei Yamaguchi 36¢ $10 5d
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 53¢ $10 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.54 · official $65.55 · 194 history records