Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1A 0x1a47…846f crypto 147 markets active 9d ago coverage 474d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 474d only
Total PnL +$151,669 (+25%) realized +$151,652 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate43%62W / 82L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$4,119per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,756
30 days+$17,265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$125,806
other 29% +$22,809
world 16% +$2,852
economics 2% −$6,505
politics 1% −$533
tech 0% −$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +179.1% +152.5% 100% 80% +16.8%
≤90d 21 +371.8% +326.9% 71% 52% +11.1%
all 144 +51.8% +37.3% 43% 28% +23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.3% 28% +23.2%
10% ← realistic here +24.2% 22% +11.4%
15% +12.2% 20% +0.6%
20% +1.2% 17% -9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,260) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late +127% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,437 vs −$841 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized+$151,652
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses62 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)144 / 147
History coverage474d ⚠
Avg bet$4,119
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $334 $335 +$1 (+0%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No 48¢ 75¢ $29 $45 +$16 (+56%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $19,624 +$1,756 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $933 +$480 +51%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $38,327 +$13,822 +36%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? May 31 $96 +$638 +663%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $420 +$570 +136%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27? Apr 27 $13,213 +$511 +4%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 28? Apr 24 $930 +$124 +13%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? Apr 24 $5,548 −$4,059 -73%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $1,044 −$57 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $420 +$551 +131%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $93 −$88 -94%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $353 +$187 +53%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 22 $124 −$124 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $350 +$76 +22%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 18 $450 +$46 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $583 +$40 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $495 +$1,005 +203%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 07 $5,044 +$92 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $650 +$990 +152%
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 20 $1,157 +$12 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Mar 20 $214 −$197 -92%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 20 $10,097 +$6,052 +60%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 14 $593 −$593 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 05 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $1,588 +$807 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 04 $191 +$74 +39%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 03 $1,260 −$915 -73%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $1,054 −$768 -73%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $194 −$138 -71%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $1,100 −$95 -9%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $1,414 +$2,977 +210%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 18 $2 +$3 +129%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 18 $6,301 −$2,504 -40%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? Feb 18 $71 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11AM ET Jan 31 $8 +$11 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 29 $50,844 +$1,650 +3%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $3,323 +$127 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 29 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 29 $5 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 28 $4 −$3 -99%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 13-19? Jan 27 $108 −$67 -62%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19? Jan 27 $2,911 −$246 -8%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 20-26? Jan 27 $693 +$26 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $22 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 8d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 95¢ $5,966 10d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 93¢ $9,380 10d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 82¢ $97 11d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 11d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 82¢ $893 11d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 82¢ $18 11d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 82¢ $137 11d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 82¢ $36 11d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 11d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,360 11d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 82¢ $46 11d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 82¢ $24 11d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,660 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $232 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $6 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $36 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $24 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $179 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $55 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $53 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $295 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $318 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $289 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $534 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $327 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.13 · official $415.12 (match) · 3434 history records