Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1A 0x1a46…ee7b crypto 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-2%) realized −$146 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%45W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,044now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$172
7 days−$138
14 days−$217
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$72
crypto 35% −$32
other 7% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -12.0% -20.4% 59% 41% -13.0%
≤30d 80 -15.9% -23.9% 56% 39% -14.5%
≤90d 80 -15.9% -23.9% 56% 39% -14.5%
all 80 -15.9% -23.9% 56% 39% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 39% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 25% -22.7%
15% -37.8% 15% -30.2%
20% -43.9% 8% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,044
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses45 / 35
Open positions5
Markets (closed)80 / 85
History coverage10d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 65¢ 78¢ $600 $722 +$122 (+20%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 74¢ $300 $253 −$47 (-16%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-35%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $151 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $71 −$19 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$13 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$37 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$19 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +26%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $300 −$85 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,050 +$117 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$15 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $56 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $24 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $37 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $11 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $44 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,044.24 · official $1,044.24 (match) · 234 history records