Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1a46…0292
sports · 309 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$48 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$40 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$161
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses107 / 143
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions59
Markets (closed)250 / 309
History coverage829d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 59 History 250 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1
14 days−$22
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 69¢ 94¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+36%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $5 $7 +$3 (+59%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 74¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 72¢ 80¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 71¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 89¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes 37¢ 35¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 76¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? No 32¢ 16¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-49%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 80¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? No 71¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 78¢ 52¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$5 -68%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1 $0 +40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +61%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +105%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 -35%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -16%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -47%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -54%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 06 $14 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Trump goes to space in 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 05 $13 −$4 -28%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 04 $6 −$3 -53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $15 −$3 -20%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 04 $8 $0 -5%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 04 $4 −$1 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $6 +$1 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 04 $5 $0 -4%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $1 +$1 +65%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 37% +$14
other 23% −$7
politics 19% −$50
crypto 10% −$1
world 6% $0
economics 3% −$1
finance 1% −$12
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $3 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 4h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 9h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 41¢ $1 13h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $1 13h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 21h
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusett BUY No 78¢ $1 23h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 77¢ $1 24h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 46¢ $1 24h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 19¢ $3 24h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $3 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 24h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 24h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $1 24h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $1 24h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $0 24h
Will Neymar score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $1 24h
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El SELL Yes 1¢ $0 30h
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El SELL Yes 1¢ $0 35h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $0 47h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.8% -8.8% 59% 41% -8.7%
≤30d 194 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 32% -17.4%
≤90d 200 -5.9% -14.9% 44% 32% -13.1%
all 250 -4.3% -13.4% 43% 30% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 30% -10.0%
10% -21.7% 23% -18.6%
15% -29.3% 18% -26.5%
20% -36.2% 15% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.90 · official $159.95 (match) · 972 history records