Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1A 0x1a45…dd98 world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 443d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$1
other 26% +$9
economics 3% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +3.3% -6.5% 20% 10% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +3.3% -6.5% 20% 10% -9.3%
all 28 +4.7% -5.2% 43% 11% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 11% -8.1%
10% -14.3% 11% -16.9%
15% -22.6% 7% -25.0%
20% -30.2% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.64 per $1 lost it wins $11.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage443d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $78 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $55 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $37 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $2 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 28 $22 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 24 $4 +$2 +45%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 25 $16 +$7 +42%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 30 $2 $0 +9%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $20 $0 -2%
Will Johni Broome win the Wooden Award? Apr 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $29 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $8 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $4 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $33 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $18 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $37 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $37 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $4 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $33 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $36 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $37 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $15 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $22 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $40 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $40 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $7 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $1 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $32 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.17 · official $37.19 (match) · 84 history records