Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a44…2820 crypto 849 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$344 (-0%) realized −$194 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%428W / 420L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day52.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,644
other 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +8.7% -1.7% 55% 41% -13.2%
≤30d 723 -9.2% -17.9% 49% 39% -14.3%
≤90d 848 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 41% -12.2%
all 848 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 41% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 41% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 33% -20.6%
15% -28.2% 28% -28.3%
20% -35.2% 23% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$55 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$194
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses428 / 420
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)848 / 849
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day52.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 848 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $204 −$24 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$29 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $310 +$255 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $223 −$77 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $112 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$82 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$43 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $82 −$78 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$16 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $82 +$49 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$27 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $114 −$22 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$60 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$25 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$11 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$6 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $155 +$155 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$44 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$60 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $153 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $133 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $83 −$69 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$34 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $83 +$117 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$178 +2383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$13 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$18 +60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$22 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $154 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $81 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $60 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 3500 history records