Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1a3f…6dea
politics · 49 markets active 9d ago
6.5score
+$50,922 +36%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,167 · open +$40,498
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$115,049
Realized+$9,167
Unrealized+$40,498
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage661d
Avg bet$2,915
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 3 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 46¢ 84¢ $49,942 $90,978 +$41,036 (+82%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 61¢ 60¢ $19,609 $19,161 −$448 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 26¢ $5,000 $4,910 −$90 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 03 $1,961 +$1,223 +62%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 24 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Te Apr 24 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Cos Apr 24 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1,500 +$1,019 +68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $672 +$1,797 +267%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Apr 18 $444 −$23 -5%
Devils vs. Maple Leafs Dec 23 $165 −$165 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Dec 23 $500 −$500 -100%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Dec 23 $2,250 −$1,195 -53%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 20 $4,323 +$589 +14%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 26 $229 −$123 -54%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Oct 26 $500 −$120 -24%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Oct 21 $612 +$501 +82%
Broncos vs. Jets Oct 13 $356 +$252 +71%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Oct 12 $350 −$269 -77%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 12 $500 −$320 -64%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 10? Oct 10 $6,669 +$397 +6%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $11,411 +$489 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? Jul 08 $1,000 −$122 -12%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August? Jul 05 $2,000 −$1,784 -89%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Jul 04 $155 +$9 +6%
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? Jul 01 $1,000 +$339 +34%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 23 $600 +$105 +18%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $5,000 +$286 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Jun 18 $5,000 −$181 -4%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 24 $250 −$250 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 24 $2,500 +$1,176 +47%
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? May 02 $2,500 +$3,619 +145%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers May 01 $475 −$15 -3%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 13 $2,000 +$5,955 +298%
Will Trump say 'beautiful' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Unio Mar 10 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Trump say 'Putin' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? Mar 10 $1,148 +$201 +18%
Canada election called before April? Mar 03 $500 −$41 -8%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Feb 16 $500 +$56 +11%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 06 $1,000 −$85 -8%
Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March? Feb 03 $100 +$242 +242%
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election? Nov 05 $500 +$85 +17%
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election? Oct 20 $876 +$1,188 +136%
Will Kamala Harris say "abortion" during DNC speech? Oct 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Donald" or "Trump" 5 or more times during DNC Oct 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Oakland" during DNC speech? Oct 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee? Sep 17 $2,400 −$1,578 -66%
Will Walz say "debate" at DNC speech? Aug 22 $116 +$113 +98%
Will Biden say "Israel" at DNC speech? Aug 20 $92 +$24 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 68% +$43,906
politics 16% +$6,278
culture 8% +$489
other 7% −$1,331
sports 1% +$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $5,000 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $5,000 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $629 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $7,000 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $1,500 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $100 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $1,000 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $780 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 42¢ $3,900 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $3,600 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $3,680 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 50¢ $10,802 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 47¢ $2,030 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 48¢ $2,500 35d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 47¢ $250 35d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 45¢ $6,000 35d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 45¢ $10,400 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 57¢ $3,189 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 80¢ $3,184 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 45¢ $1,100 46d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 45¢ $4,000 46d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 42¢ $1,700 46d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 44¢ $25 47d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 49¢ $1,000 47d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $1,500 47d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 44¢ $500 47d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 43¢ $1,500 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 42¢ $1,000 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $2,519 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 40¢ $170 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 +13.2% +2.4% 43% 43% +13.8%
all 46 +2.3% -7.4% 48% 39% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 39% +3.1%
10% -16.3% 28% -6.8%
15% -24.4% 24% -15.8%
20% -31.8% 22% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115,049.25 · official $115,049.25 (match) · 187 history records