Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1a3f…4051 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,177 (-15%) realized −$1,179 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$479per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$265
7 days−$265
14 days−$265
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$1,075
other 40% +$396
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -16.0% -24.0% 40% 30% -15.1%
≤30d 10 -16.0% -24.0% 40% 30% -15.1%
≤90d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 45% 36% +14.1%
all 15 -27.3% -34.2% 33% 27% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 27% -17.7%
10% -40.5% 27% -25.6%
15% -46.3% 27% -32.8%
20% -51.6% 13% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$620 vs −$378 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$1,179
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage134d
Avg bet$479
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 36¢ $108 $110 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $205 +$607 +297%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $103 −$99 -96%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $712 −$385 -54%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $817 −$800 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $813 +$294 +36%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,011 +$495 +49%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $264 +$23 +9%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Apr 02 $1,120 +$1,680 +150%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 11 $385 −$385 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nets Mar 09 $1,242 −$1,242 -100%
Jazz vs. Bucks Mar 07 $88 −$88 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Feb 11 $380 −$380 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 87¢ $403 36m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 88¢ $409 37m
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 51m
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 18¢ $315 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 18¢ $12 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $102 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $610 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $308 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $509 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 66¢ $1,107 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 23h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $103 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $753 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $753 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 41¢ $284 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 41¢ $3 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $264 27h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 36¢ $108 84d
Raptors vs. Pelicans BUY Raptors 55¢ $385 106d
Cavaliers vs. Magic BUY Magic 40¢ $1,120 106d
Grizzlies vs. Nets BUY Grizzlies 54¢ $1,242 108d
Jazz vs. Bucks BUY Jazz 22¢ $88 110d
Clippers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 76¢ $380 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.50 · official $109.50 (match) · 120 history records