Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a38…3378 sports 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$173 (-5%) realized −$217 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%36W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$219
14 days−$411
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$197
other 11% −$9
crypto 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -25.4% -32.5% 42% 42% -28.1%
≤30d 82 -5.1% -14.1% 44% 44% -15.8%
≤90d 82 -5.1% -14.1% 44% 44% -15.8%
all 82 -5.1% -14.1% 44% 44% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 44% -15.8%
10% -22.3% 44% -23.9%
15% -29.9% 43% -31.2%
20% -36.7% 39% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$34 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 46
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions4
Markets (closed)82 / 86
History coverage28d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 100¢ $50 $86 +$36 (+72%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+53%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$17 +83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $52 −$51 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $71 +$32 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$45 +90%
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 22 $30 +$27 +90%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +55%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 +$1 +73%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 +$27 +90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$84 +83%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $29 +$21 +70%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $22 +$28 +129%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $3 −$2 -70%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$15 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$23 +226%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 +$9 +900%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 26h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $52 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $71 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $51 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 28¢ $20 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 4d
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) BUY Ostapenko 52¢ $30 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $50 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $2 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 5d
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) BUY Fritz 46¢ $51 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $0 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $10 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 6d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 6d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 10¢ $1 6d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 33¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.24 · official $144.24 (match) · 144 history records