Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1A 0x1a37…6984 finance 171 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2,326 (-0%) realized +$11,690 · open −$14,016
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate81%128W / 30L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,092per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$63,438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 235d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$15,157
crypto 18% −$392
other 11% −$3,470
finance 9% +$2,163
economics 7% −$722
sports 1% −$188
tech 0% +$25
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.0% -24.9% 62% 23% -15.4%
≤30d 20 -8.8% -17.5% 75% 25% -8.2%
≤90d 95 -1.2% -10.6% 88% 8% -9.4%
all 158 -3.3% -12.5% 81% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 11% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 5% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 4% -26.6%
20% -35.5% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,069) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$314 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$63,438
Realized+$11,690
Unrealized−$14,016
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses128 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions13
Markets (closed)158 / 171
History coverage235d
Avg bet$5,092
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 82¢ $24,000 $39,192 +$15,192 (+63%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $24,000 $8,808 −$15,192 (-63%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 85¢ 99¢ $3,348 $3,896 +$549 (+16%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $2,835 $3,149 +$314 (+11%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $2,352 $2,464 +$111 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 91¢ $2,295 $2,320 +$26 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $2,024 $2,155 +$131 (+6%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $692 $675 −$17 (-2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? No 76¢ 94¢ $277 $343 +$66 (+24%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? No 91¢ 98¢ $171 $184 +$12 (+7%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 62¢ $122 $100 −$22 (-18%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 95¢ 96¢ $84 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? No 83¢ 88¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+7%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 81¢ 95¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $134 −$132 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $477 −$470 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $46 +$4 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $46 +$4 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 +$6 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $322 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$9 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $16 +$4 +22%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,960 +$38 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 14 $4,355 +$63 +1%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 in May? May 31 $52 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May? May 31 $500 +$89 +18%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 in May? May 31 $537 +$5 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May? May 31 $1,911 +$240 +12%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $660 in May? May 31 $3,069 +$140 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in May? May 31 $2,852 +$169 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? May 31 $5,067 +$148 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in May? May 18 $56 +$3 +6%
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day May 15 $195 +$5 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 14? May 15 $500 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 14? May 15 $1,001 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 14? May 15 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June? May 14 $208 +$22 +11%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $314 +$3 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $496 +$5 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $695 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $762 +$7 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $2,069 +$37 +2%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $385 on May 6? May 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $380 on May 6? May 07 $150 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $695 on May 6? May 07 $326 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on May 6? May 07 $568 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $700 on May 6? May 07 $601 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 6? May 07 $897 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on May 6? May 07 $1,831 +$3 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June? May 06 $1,206 +$218 +18%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $685 Week of April 27 2026? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $725 Week of April 27 2026? May 05 $51 −$11 -22%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of April 27 2026? May 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of April 27 above $144? May 05 $19 +$1 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 Week of April 27 2026? May 05 $21 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $188 Week of April 27 2026? May 05 $128 +$4 +3%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 27 2026? May 05 $155 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of April 27 2026? May 05 $1,405 +$6 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 Week of April 27 2026? May 05 $208 +$8 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 1? May 05 $249 +$3 +1%
MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 05 $297 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 2¢ $4 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 2¢ $0 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 2¢ $0 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 2¢ $2 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 2¢ $2 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 2¢ $2 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 3¢ $13 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 3¢ $58 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 3¢ $44 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 3¢ $8 2h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $704 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 0¢ $5 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $26 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $451 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $26 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $26 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $15 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? BUY No 98¢ $315 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? BUY No 98¢ $47 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? BUY No 98¢ $20 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 79¢ $32 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? BUY No 91¢ $41 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? BUY No 81¢ $15 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? BUY No 91¢ $131 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63,437.50 · official $63,437.50 (match) · 882 history records