Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a36…f270 weather 569 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$215 (+11%) realized +$213 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%205W / 354L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$16
14 days+$6
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% +$177
crypto 13% +$31
sports 7% +$7
other 3% −$36
world 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +8.1% -2.2% 48% 45% +10.8%
≤30d 104 +10.0% -0.4% 45% 42% -4.8%
≤90d 400 -28.4% -35.2% 31% 30% -8.4%
all 559 +0.6% -8.9% 37% 34% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 34% -2.1%
10% -17.7% 31% -11.5%
15% -25.6% 27% -20.0%
20% -32.9% 23% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses205 / 354
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)559 / 569
History coverage128d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? Yes 25¢ 42¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+80%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+89%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 17? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 +$2 +99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$10 +372%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 +$8 +381%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 16 $0 $0 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +50%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 −$2 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 65¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.52 · official $12.49 (match) · 2047 history records