Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

1A 0x1a32…9c25 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$312 (+6%) realized +$491 · open −$179

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$210per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$24est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,072

7 days+$1,513

14 days+$1,513

30 days+$1,513

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-13.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-4.6%	-13.7%	44%	38%	+23.3%
≤30d	16	-4.6%	-13.7%	44%	38%	+23.3%
≤90d	16	-4.6%	-13.7%	44%	38%	+23.3%
all	16	-4.6%	-13.7%	44%	38%	+23.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.7%	38%	+23.3%
10%	-21.9%	38%	+11.5%
15%	-29.5%	38%	+0.7%
20%	-36.4%	38%	-9.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -30% → late +20% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$359 vs −$111 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$324

Realized+$491

Unrealized−$179

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Est. fees paid−$24

Open positions4

Markets (closed)16 / 25

History coverage10d

Avg bet$210

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	25¢	28¢	$100	$114	+$14 (+14%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	No	24¢	22¢	$101	$94	−$6 (-6%)
Will Gabriel Magalhães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	24¢	14¢	$101	$59	−$42 (-42%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	48¢	14¢	$202	$57	−$145 (-72%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$957	+$709	+74%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 29	$103	−$103	-100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 29	$102	−$102	-100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a	Jun 28	$150	+$568	+379%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$41	−$41	-100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$235	−$235	-100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$387	−$7	-2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$648	+$730	+113%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$52	−$52	-100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$60	−$60	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 24	$184	−$184	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$299	+$161	+54%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 24	$230	+$120	+52%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$102	+$3	+2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$407	+$222	+55%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$215	−$215	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	48¢	$205	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$221	4h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	30¢	$103	8h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Will Norway	BUY	10¢	$100	19h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Canada	32¢	$102	31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	25¢	$102	31h
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	BUY No	24¢	$103	39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$737	2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a	BUY	20¢	$150	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	18¢	$41	3d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	29¢	$198	3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corner	BUY	3¢	$10	3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	38¢	$380	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	23¢	$235	3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	38¢	$387	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	47¢	$456	4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	30¢	$52	5d
Patrik Schick: 3+ shots AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	BUY	16¢	$51	5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win o	BUY	50¢	$203	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	48¢	$192	5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	12¢	$14	5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	12¢	$27	6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	12¢	$0	6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	12¢	$9	6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	12¢	$0	6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	12¢	$9	6d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	21¢	$105	6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	65¢	$299	6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	65¢	$230	6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$54	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.96 · official $324.00 (match) · 54 history records