Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1A 0x1a2f…647a sports 364 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,360 (+1%) realized +$5,614 · open −$2,254
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%190W / 158L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$1,231per market
Trades / day74.8pace
Fees−$1,949est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$19,572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$6,467
other 36% −$10,514
world 1% +$3,398
weather 0% +$94
politics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -16.2% -24.2% 54% 44% -16.4%
≤30d 348 -14.1% -22.3% 55% 38% -9.1%
≤90d 348 -14.1% -22.3% 55% 38% -9.1%
all 348 -14.1% -22.3% 55% 38% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 38% -9.1%
10% -29.7% 23% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -36.5% 17% -25.8%
20% -42.7% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$1,047) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$443 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$19,572
Realized+$5,614
Unrealized−$2,254
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses190 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$1,949
Open positions16
Markets (closed)348 / 364
History coverage26d
Avg bet$1,231
Trades / day74.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 94¢ 100¢ $8,856 $9,448 +$592 (+7%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 100¢ $3,088 $3,318 +$231 (+7%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 56¢ 52¢ $2,027 $1,877 −$150 (-7%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 93¢ 100¢ $1,302 $1,399 +$97 (+7%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2,217 $997 −$1,220 (-55%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 45¢ 48¢ $707 $754 +$47 (+7%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 80¢ $32 $432 +$401 (+1260%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 39¢ 18¢ $745 $353 −$392 (-53%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 7¢ 7¢ $264 $256 −$8 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ 82¢ $125 $238 +$113 (+91%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $101 $210 +$108 (+107%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 56¢ $126 $128 +$1 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 28¢ 20¢ $54 $37 −$16 (-31%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 76¢ 84¢ $30 $34 +$3 (+11%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $38 $33 −$5 (-13%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+90%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-47%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 11¢ 0¢ $642 $3 −$639 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 0¢ $273 $0 −$272 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $821 +$19 +2%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $194 +$56 +29%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,844 −$2,864 -74%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4,685 −$3,285 -70%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $540 −$10 -2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $245 +$15 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36,637 −$5,107 -14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $365 +$25 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $852 −$402 -47%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $182 −$178 -98%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $809 −$789 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $247 −$227 -92%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $90 −$9 -10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $442 −$430 -97%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $115 −$112 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,153 +$1,058 +20%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $147 +$43 +29%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $523 +$147 +28%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $435 +$125 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $697 +$84 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,988 −$548 -18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $12,897 +$433 +3%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $280 −$30 -11%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $35 −$7 -20%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $879 +$451 +51%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $200 +$10 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $338 +$162 +48%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $279 +$41 +14%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $4,375 +$1,415 +32%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $113 −$110 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12,072 −$5,469 -45%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,725 +$395 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4,082 −$5 -0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,616 +$223 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $171 +$229 +134%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $238 +$72 +30%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,478 +$346 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,805 +$365 +10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,475 +$885 +36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,557 −$1,037 -67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,136 +$756 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3,214 +$650 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5,637 +$103 +2%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $1,314 +$866 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 27¢ $27 8m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 30¢ $28 8m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 86¢ $484 8m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 20¢ $35 8m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $129 27m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $462 27m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $462 27m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $462 27m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $462 27m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $462 27m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $462 27m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,144 28m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $257 28m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 45¢ $2,223 28m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $165 28m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 96¢ $875 28m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1,272 28m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $175 28m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 96¢ $1,573 28m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 96¢ $192 28m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 96¢ $3,643 28m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $214 28m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $214 28m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $447 28m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $49 29m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 57¢ $127 29m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $56 34m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $37 37m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $9 37m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,571.60 · official $19,571.60 (match) · 2189 history records