Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:40:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a29…16c5 sports 1088 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%474W / 609L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$384est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$258
7 days−$218
14 days−$437
30 days−$956
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% +$379
sports 44% −$534
other 10% +$442
world 2% +$13
culture 0% −$25
crypto 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -19.2% -26.9% 39% 39% -26.1%
≤30d 288 -14.8% -22.9% 36% 35% -17.8%
≤90d 1026 -4.5% -13.6% 41% 40% -12.7%
all 1083 +2.0% -7.8% 44% 43% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 43% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 42% -17.8%
15% -24.6% 41% -25.8%
20% -32.0% 39% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses474 / 609
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$384
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1083 / 1088
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1083 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $24 +$27 +114%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $54 +$17 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $41 +$14 +34%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: EC Juventude 1 - 3 AA Ponte Preta? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$18 +119%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $35 +$23 +65%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $71 +$29 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 +$34 +175%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 +$23 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 +$17 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 +$30 +292%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 +$20 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$19 +123%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Kawkab AC vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ceará SC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $25 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $24 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $28 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $54 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $24 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 35h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $15 35h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $15 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 94¢ $59 44h
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $35 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 2d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 71¢ $11 4d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 71¢ $60 4d
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $15 4d
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 25¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $53 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 5d
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.70 · official $74.70 (match) · 3500 history records