Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1A 0x1a27…98ed sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$378 (+48%) realized +$383 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 87d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$459
sports 25% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -28.8% -35.6% 33% 33% +38.1%
all 3 -28.8% -35.6% 33% 33% +38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 33% +38.1%
10% -41.7% 33% +24.9%
15% -47.4% 33% +12.8%
20% -52.5% 33% +1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +53% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$557 vs −$98 · ×5.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$383
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage87d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 66¢ $99 $94 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $490 +$557 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 19d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 30d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,047 87d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 46¢ $490 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.34 · official $94.34 (match) · 5 history records