Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a24…fd20 crypto 390 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (362 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$109 (-1%) realized −$108 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%181W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day361.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$107
other 1% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (362 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 387 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 40% -11.0%
≤30d 387 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 40% -11.0%
≤90d 387 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 40% -11.0%
all 387 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 40% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover361.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 40% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 34% -19.5%
15% -31.1% 29% -27.3%
20% -37.9% 23% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses181 / 206
Open positions3
Markets (closed)387 / 390
History coverage3d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day361.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 78¢ 61¢ $78 $61 −$17 (-22%)
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 60¢ 50¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-16%)
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 46¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 28¢ 39¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+39%)
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 58¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$5 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$6 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $13 +$5 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $13 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $79 +$33 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$4 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$3 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$10 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$14 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $247 −$28 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $87 +$15 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$2 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$6 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $18 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $263 +$72 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$5 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$18 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $84 −$49 -58%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$32 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$1 -9%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$5 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $141 +$123 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $70 +$3 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$8 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$1 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $38 −$23 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $13 +$7 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$8 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $23 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $14 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $72 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $61 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $79 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.07 · official $75.92 (match) · 1522 history records