Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1a21…9d32 other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$15
politics 24% −$9
sports 16% −$52
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 140 -3.3% -12.5% 12% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 6% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 4% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 4% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage134d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $184 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $193 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $352 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $212 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $192 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 25 $213 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $388 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $156 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $373 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $352 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 11 $165 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $175 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $336 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $389 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $383 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $367 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $342 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $404 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $208 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 2h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 13h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 13h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 34h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 34h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 37h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 41h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 43h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 43h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 21d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 21d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 22d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $205 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $205 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 27d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $192 27d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $192 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $213 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $213 30d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 30d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 30d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $206 31d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $206 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 414 history records