Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a20…22e8 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 329d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$6
politics 30% $0
other 10% +$1
weather 7% +$1
finance 5% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 14 -4.6% -13.7% 21% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 14 -4.6% -13.7% 21% 0% -10.9%
all 44 -1.4% -10.8% 27% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

329d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage329d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $36 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $32 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $36 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $65 −$4 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $3 −$2 -58%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $72 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on August 10 Aug 10 $71 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Aug 10 $78 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $8 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jul 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Jul 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $16 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $36 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $36 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 22h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $4 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $33 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $33 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records