Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a1d…b997 crypto 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$202 (-9%) realized −$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate28%27W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$246
7 days−$246
14 days−$328
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$471
sports 4% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -47.1% -52.1% 28% 22% -55.5%
≤30d 47 -39.9% -45.6% 32% 19% -33.6%
≤90d 95 -42.0% -47.5% 28% 20% -29.3%
all 95 -42.0% -47.5% 28% 20% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.5% 20% -29.3%
10% -52.6% 15% -36.0%
15% -57.1% 9% -42.2%
20% -61.3% 8% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses27 / 68
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage81d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $34 −$14 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $47 −$37 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $46 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $62 −$17 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $59 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $104 −$52 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $78 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $91 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $87 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 08 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $32 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $46 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $40 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $47 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $46 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $46 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $62 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $29 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $7 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 240 history records