Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:56:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1A 0x1a1c…5a9c sports 465 markets active 2h ago coverage 365d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,902 (+3%) realized +$2,071 · open −$169
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%173W / 276L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$894est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$435
7 days+$1,978
14 days−$6,471
30 days+$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$290
crypto 11% −$1,108
other 10% +$247
politics 7% +$2,266
world 3% +$13
economics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -3.9% -13.0% 39% 36% +15.7%
≤30d 330 -14.6% -22.7% 37% 33% -9.1%
≤90d 406 -10.7% -19.2% 39% 35% -7.0%
all 449 -11.8% -20.2% 39% 34% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 34% -7.5%
10% -27.8% 30% -16.4%
15% -34.8% 27% -24.5%
20% -41.2% 22% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$79 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

365d coverage
Net worth$472
Realized+$2,071
Unrealized−$169
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses173 / 276
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$894
Open positions11
Markets (closed)449 / 465
History coverage365d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $76 $79 +$3 (+4%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $39 $66 +$27 (+69%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $33 −$5 (-13%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $97 $16 −$81 (-84%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-59%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 6¢ 0¢ $90 $1 −$89 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $78 −$77 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $373 −$373 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $99 +$49 +50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $810 +$447 +55%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $35 +$38 +108%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $608 +$477 +78%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $15 −$14 -95%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $340 −$17 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $23 +$52 +231%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $83 +$79 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $414 −$408 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $700 +$222 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $509 +$618 +122%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$210 +206%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$109 +213%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $197 +$702 +356%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $3 −$2 -51%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $304 −$155 -51%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $296 −$290 -98%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $5 +$4 +68%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $204 +$347 +170%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $61 −$8 -12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $356 +$604 +169%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $136 −$104 -77%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $80 +$4 +5%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $31 −$21 -69%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $31 −$15 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $319 +$324 +102%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,143 +$2,008 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $18 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $35 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $102 −$34 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $255 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 1¢ $10 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 10¢ $31 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 20¢ $51 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $78 5h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $472.07 · official $572.33 · 1761 history records