Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a10…8090 crypto 54 markets active 1d ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-20%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%17W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$6
14 days−$9
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$7
other 17% −$5
world 14% −$24
sports 3% −$6
politics 1% −$2
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +171.7% +145.8% 33% 33% +36.5%
≤30d 10 +68.7% +52.6% 20% 20% -49.0%
≤90d 10 +68.7% +52.6% 20% 20% -49.0%
all 53 -6.4% -15.3% 32% 32% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 32% -27.9%
10% -23.4% 28% -34.8%
15% -30.8% 11% -41.1%
20% -37.6% 8% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses17 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage145d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 +$13 +1290%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 10 $3 −$3 -99%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 10 $6 −$4 -60%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 10 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 10 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 10 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Feb 10 $4 −$3 -71%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 29 $3 −$1 -23%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET Jan 29 $11 +$4 +33%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET Jan 26 $10 −$4 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET Jan 26 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET Jan 26 $8 −$5 -58%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 8AM ET Jan 26 $15 +$4 +26%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 7AM ET Jan 26 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7AM ET Jan 26 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 6AM ET Jan 26 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 6AM ET Jan 26 $10 +$3 +33%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 5AM ET Jan 26 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 5AM ET Jan 26 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 26 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jan 26 $3 +$1 +27%
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 25? Jan 25 $2 $0 -22%
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 24 $1 $0 +33%
Will there be 5-7 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? Jan 24 $2 $0 +18%
Will there be less than 5 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? Jan 24 $1 +$5 +350%
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -70%
Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -75%
Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 24 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24? Jan 24 $1 +$2 +233%
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 23? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -79%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Will J.D. Vance say "Afford" or "Affordable" 5+ times during the March Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will J.D. Vance say "America" or "American" 20+ times during the March Jan 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $2 −$1 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $2 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $2 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $3 9d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $10 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 127d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 127d
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 127d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 127d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 127d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 127d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 127d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 131d
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 139d
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 139d
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 139d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 139d
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? SELL No 1¢ $0 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.95 (match) · 119 history records