Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a0f…7a03 crypto 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,093 (+13%) realized +$1,127 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%33W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -20.3% -27.9% 39% 39% -13.8%
≤30d 84 -20.3% -27.9% 39% 39% -13.8%
≤90d 84 -20.3% -27.9% 39% 39% -13.8%
all 84 -20.3% -27.9% 39% 39% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.9% 39% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.8% 36% -22.0%
15% -41.1% 35% -29.6%
20% -46.8% 33% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$75 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized+$1,127
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses33 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage3d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 61¢ 56¢ $350 $316 −$34 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $296 −$286 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $67 −$42 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $62 +$60 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$36 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $206 +$42 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$23 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $157 +$38 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $115 +$48 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$8 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $316 +$858 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $313 +$215 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$109 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $310 +$250 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $359 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $296 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $517 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $106 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $156 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $21 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.13 · official $316.13 (match) · 174 history records