Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a06…8d9d other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$85 (-8%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$4
14 days−$41
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$215
politics 8% +$30
sports 5% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 50% -12.1%
≤30d 16 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 38% -21.5%
≤90d 45 -20.6% -28.2% 38% 27% -19.1%
all 45 -20.6% -28.2% 38% 27% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 27% -19.1%
10% -35.1% 20% -26.8%
15% -41.3% 11% -33.9%
20% -47.1% 11% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage49d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 73¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $33 +$7 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $14 +$19 +135%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $20 −$17 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $60 −$36 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $57 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $48 +$10 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $50 +$16 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$10 +202%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $43 −$10 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $18 −$10 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $50 −$25 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $12 −$5 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $17 −$8 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $30 −$29 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $19 −$18 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 57 million views on day 4 May 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 4 May 20 $14 −$13 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get 58 million or more views on day 4? May 19 $15 −$15 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 3 May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 May 19 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $2 +$4 +161%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $18 +$4 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $7 −$5 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $6 −$5 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $7 −$6 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $31 +$64 +209%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 12 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $19 +$81 +414%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 09 $33 −$5 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 22h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 38h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $11 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 11d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $24 12d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 14d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 14d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $57 15d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $57 15d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $48 15d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 17d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $57 18d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $67 21d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $66 21d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $50 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.00 · official $25.00 (match) · 103 history records