Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1a01…1a3c sports 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,078 (+15%) realized +$1,018 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%35W / 24L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day155.5pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$908
other 8% +$582
world 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +22.6% +10.9% 59% 51% +16.4%
≤30d 59 +22.6% +10.9% 59% 51% +16.4%
≤90d 59 +22.6% +10.9% 59% 51% +16.4%
all 59 +22.6% +10.9% 59% 51% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.9% 51% +16.4%
10% ← realistic here +0.3% 46% +5.3%
15% -9.4% 36% -4.9%
20% -18.3% 32% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$55 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,675
Realized+$1,018
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses35 / 24
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions38
Markets (closed)59 / 97
History coverage2d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day155.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 16¢ 30¢ $147 $279 +$132 (+90%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 8¢ 78¢ $22 $218 +$195 (+869%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 50¢ 56¢ $174 $193 +$19 (+11%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ 89¢ $85 $135 +$50 (+60%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) United States 88¢ 88¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $120 $112 −$7 (-6%)
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Los Angeles Angels 76¢ 70¢ $120 $111 −$9 (-8%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ 62¢ $90 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 56¢ 84¢ $60 $90 +$30 (+51%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 35¢ 34¢ $90 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 11¢ 16¢ $60 $83 +$23 (+38%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $52 $72 +$20 (+39%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Under 31¢ 70¢ $30 $68 +$38 (+127%)
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Uruguay 9¢ 10¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+6%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ 44¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 44¢ $60 $55 −$4 (-7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? No 73¢ 92¢ $30 $37 +$8 (+25%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Minnesota Lynx 43¢ 52¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 50¢ 56¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Over 17¢ 10¢ $53 $34 −$19 (-36%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates 88¢ 97¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 77¢ 80¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 44¢ 45¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 36¢ 36¢ $30 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $30 +$20 +65%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $22 +$7 +32%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $60 +$9 +14%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $61 +$60 +99%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $208 +$54 +26%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $212 +$146 +69%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $30 +$27 +90%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $61 +$3 +4%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $133 −$98 -73%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $121 −$33 -28%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$21 +68%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $30 +$32 +105%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $56 −$11 -20%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 21 $56 −$14 -25%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $213 +$235 +110%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Jun 21 $30 +$41 +134%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $59 +$51 +86%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $59 +$6 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $116 +$51 +44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $121 +$69 +57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $180 +$34 +19%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $359 +$10 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $61 +$54 +87%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $60 +$15 +24%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$7 +36%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $30 +$25 +84%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $114 +$99 +87%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $323 +$729 +226%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $111 +$86 +77%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $212 +$21 +10%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia Jun 21 $151 −$27 -18%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $121 +$42 +35%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $30 +$7 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 21 $30 +$8 +27%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$11 +22%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $26 11m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $30 12m
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $30 15m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $28 15m
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $30 15m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 15m
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY United States 88¢ $30 16m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $31 17m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $31 17m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 73¢ $30 18m
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY United States 88¢ $30 18m
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY United States 88¢ $30 18m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 19m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $30 20m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $31 20m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $25 20m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 20m
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY United States 88¢ $30 21m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $28 22m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 24m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $26 24m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $30 24m
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $30 24m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $30 27m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 31m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 31m
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay 9¢ $31 31m
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay 9¢ $31 31m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 31m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,675.46 · official $2,675.50 (match) · 306 history records